Aziz: The world’s eyes are on the Greek election, and whether or not Greeks
will elect New Democracy’s Samaras (widely-assumed to be pro-bailout,
pro-status quo), or SYRIZA’s Tsipras (widely-assumed to be anti-bailout,
anti-status quo).
The Eurocrats have very sternly warned Greece against voting against austerity. Merkel (Germany's head bankster ponzi scheme proponent) said:
It is extremely important for Greeks to elect lawmakers who would respect the terms of the bailout.
In recent days, opinion has swung back toward the status quo, with Intrade rating New Democracy’s chances of winning the largest number of seats at 65%, and SYRIZA at just 33%.
While I cannot rule out New Democracy winning, I think that I’d flip
those odds. Greece widely reviles German-imposed austerity, but fears
the consequences of leaving the Euro — 85% of Greeks want to stay in.
A vote for New Democracy would reflect fear of Drachmatization.
Meanwhile, a vote for SYRIZA would seem to reflect the idea that through
brinkmanship and the threat of Euro collapse, Greece can negotiate
their way to a much more favourable bailout position.
So why do I think SYRIZA are the likelier winner? The election is on a knife-edge, so I think the difference might be football.
Greece — against all odds — managed to bumble through the Euro 2012
group stage, beating Russia 1-0 and likely setting up a poetic quarter
final against Germany. I think that that victory against Russia will fire enough Greeks to try their luck and assert themselves against austerity.
For Greece, this is an important election. Inside the euro, their
heavily state-dependent economy will continue to suffer scathing
austerity. Outside the euro, they can freely debase, and — as Nigel
Farage has noted — enjoy the benefits of a cheaper currency like renewed
tourism and more competitive industry. If Greeks want growth sooner
rather than much later, they should choose life outside the euro (and by
voting for Tsipras and trying tough negotiating tactics, they will be
asking to be thrown out).
But for the rest of the world, and the rest of Europe, this is all meaningless. As Ron Paul has noted, when
the banking institutions need the money, central banks — whether it’s
the ECB, or the Fed, or the BoE, or a new global central superbank —
will print and print and print. Whether Greece is in or out,
when the time comes to save the financial system the central bankers
will print. That is the nature of fiat money, as much as the chickenhawks at the ECB might pretend to have hard-money credentials.
Tsipras, though — as a young hard-leftist — would be a good scapegoat
for throwing Greece out of the Eurozone (something that — in truth —
the core seems to want).
The real consequence throughout Europe as austerity continues to bite
into state-dependent, high-unemployment economies will be more
political fragmentation and support for political extremes, as the
increasingly outlandish and unpopular political and financial solutions
pushed by Eurocrats — specifically more and deeper integration, and
banker bailouts — continue to help special interests and ignore the
wider populations.
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