Golden Dawn surges into 2nd place
New Democracy diehards set to desert Samaras
The Slog: Previously
100% reliable Athens sources this morning relayed to The Slog findings
from ‘secret ballot’ quantitative research polling undertaken by the
American Embassy there. The results spell trouble for Prime Minister
Antonis Samaras…..and present Brussels with even bigger problems.
In a sensational development today, results
from an opinion poll allowing respondents to keep their final voting
intentions ‘secret’ during the interview show some astonishing
developments since the Coalition ‘crackdown’ on Golden Dawn. This is the
state of the Parties as recorded by the study (%):
Syriza (Left) 23.5
Golden Dawn (Far Right) 17.5
New Democracy (Conservative) 13.5
KKE (Communist) 5.5
ANEL (Conservative) 4.5
PASOK (Venizelos) 2.9
Plan B (Anti-Troika) 2.5
DIMAR (Pro-Pasok) 2.2
Others c. 20
Undecided c. 10.0
As I posted recently, it seemed likely that
the “collapse” in Golden Dawn support had been overstated by open
questioning: given the chance to keep their extremism quiet, older more
traditional Greeks are siding with GD’s “patriotism” and avowed policy
of helping the old on a district-by-district basis. Whatever any of us
may feel about the neo-Nazis, this strategy has very successful. We must
also reluctantly take our hats off to American psephologists, who
probably still lead the world in the study of voting behaviour….and how
to tell lies from truth.
As both the Lenders and the IMF represent
America more or less directly, we can be sure that Brussels and Berlin
are already aware of this result.
Meanwhile, in an as yet unconfirmed report,
bizarrely I am told that ‘a significant number of members of the
parliament, who belong to New Democracy, but they are coming from the
part of New Democracy which is the old part that belongs to Konstantinos
Karamanlis (the founder of New Democracy and that who took the country
after the Junta of 1974) are very very disappointed with what ND has
become under Samaras.They may be in secret discussions which may include
even the possibility of supporting Syriza, if Syriza is going to fight
Troika’.
Farts have a tendency to backfire, and that
truism seems to apply to Antonikis more than most. What looked at first
sight like a smart move (bash the Nazis) has predictably stirred the
hornets’ nest bigtime.
I’d love to record that Antonis Samaras is,
as we say in English, “too clever by half”. But the overwhelming
majority of my Greek friends suggest the opposite is true.
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