Crunch time for Alexis Tsipras
The latest opinion poll from Greece
has a more robust sample than the last, but confirms its findings….and
establishes as clear fact that Golden Dawn is now the largest Party by
voting intentions in the Hellenic Republic.
By John Ward: The results combine the findings of two
online polls conducted by electronic newspaper Zougla.gr over the last
two weeks.Golden Dawn has consolidated its lead with 22.6%, followed by
SYRIZA with 19.2% and New Democracy (effectively the ruling Party) third
with just 16.7%. Independent Greeks and KKE are on 4.9% each, with
junior Venizelos-led Coalition Party PASOK near-insignificant at 4.5%.
Assuming some horse-trading on Right and
Left, we are still looking at a stand-off in the next election. All
told, what we have here is Right 35% and Left 25%. But even though one
could produce a Government with neither Syriza or GD in it, this would
be a suicidal thing (socially) for any Establishment to attempt:
disenfranchising 3 voters in 5 isn’t a very clever strategy.
There are however some astonishing new signs
on the “where votes were gained and lost” dimension.
For example, 16%
of SYRIZA defecters went to Golden Dawn….suggesting that some Greeks
care nothing for political ideology, they will just back anyone who
stands up to the Troika and Brussels. The new GD support is also heavily
biased towards middle class, fully-educated respondents. A psephology
source in Athens observes, “The impetus behind to Golden Dawn among well
educated people from all over Greece shows that Greeks are looking for a
National leader with clear Patriotic, national priority and not
political messages. It also states very clearly that Greeks will turn
their back on Europe if it continues this ridiculous saga. As long as
European and Greek government politicians do not undertand this, the
numbers of GD and other nationalism parties will rise [because they] put
their country first and on top of everything and everybody. This is to
do with the values of a nation, of the family, of the culture.”
Support will grow further for Golden Dawn
once voters wake up to the reality that debt relief has been cancelled,
and default some time in the Spring of 2014 is now inevitable.
Last April I posted from Athens about the Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras as follows:
‘I suspect the truth is that Tsipras is
already leaking support further down the social scale as he backs away
from EU and geopolitical confrontation…’
In September I posted from Kalamata:
‘Greece’s Leftist rainbow from
disgruntled Pasokists via Syriza to the KKE needs to wake up fast…The
same Patriotic Liberal/Left Front is required as that created before and
during the ejection of the Colonels’ Junta. This time however, it must
eject over time three things from Greece: Establishment corruption, the
euro, and rule from Brussels.’
Tsipras has failed to take note of this. So the baton is passing to Golden Dawn.
This is a crucial moment for the Syriza
leader. Either he bites the bullet, becomes more inclusive and rejects
foreign rule by madmen, or he will increasingly be seen as just another
collaborator. And he does not have a lot of time to decide.
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