Charles Hugh Smith: Perhaps the "recovery" is a Mind Trick played on the weak-minded.
Those with vested interests in the Status Quo tout data that supports the claim the "recovery" is now "self-sustaining," meaning
that the economy is now expanding fast enough to fuel new growth. In
this view, the Federal Reserve's extraordinary policy interventions
(zero interest rate policy, $23 trillion in support provided to the
global banking system, 3.4% mortgage rates, etc.) and the Federal
government's unprecedented fiscal stimulus (borrow and blow $1.3
trillion a year) have done their job; the economy is now
"self-sustaining," meaning that it can continue growing as Federal
deficits shrink and the Fed trims its quantitative easing policies.
The data favored by the Status Quo interests are GDP (which rises when
the government borrows and blows trillions of dollars), housing sales
(still low compared to 2006, but better than 2011) and consumer
confidence, which is hitting multi-year highs. Consumer confidence is a
quasi-quantitative measure of the critical "animal spirits" that
Keynesians look for to drive more borrowing and spending: if you feel
wealthier for whatever reason, that confidence arouses your "animal
spirits" to rush out and buy something, preferably a house and a car.
Those looking at fundamentals such as household income/debt and sales see more of a Mind Trick being played on the weak-minded.