By Richard Cottrell
The prospect of a hot war between Israel and Turkey has taken on serious proportions as news emerges that Israel is willing to station troops and civilians on the divided island of Cyprus, ostensibly to protect oil and gas drilling facilities.
Editor’s note: There have been previously flare-ups between Israel and Turkey over Israel being included in a NATO flotilla and the slaughter of activists on the Turkish humanitarian vessel Mavi Marmara as well as heated exchanges over the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza. These are just a handful of examples which should be taken into consideration when examining the relationship between Turkey and Israel.
Exploration of reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean are highly sensitive, given the northern sector of Cyprus is under Turkish supervision and control.
Turkey has been warning Greek Cypriots in the south that any attempt by them to monopolize drilling operations will be firmly resisted.
The Israeli foreign ministry has desperately refuted a report by the Anatolian news agency that Benjamin Netanyahu – who earlier this year made an official call on Greek Cyprus – wishes to install a substantial base camp in return for building and operating a gas terminal.
The problem with the denials is that everyone close to the increasingly explosive off-shore drilling operations knows perfectly well the main topic of the recent Israeli-Cypriot summit was to deter Turkey from attacking the facilities.
The Turkish premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned the Greek Cypriots to move very cautiously or expect ‘serious consequences.’
The news agency report (repeated in the Turkish English language daily Today’s Zaman) seems well informed that when Netanyahu arrived in Greek Cyprus on February 16th this year, he presented a blueprint to the Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias, proposing a virtually sovereign Israeli base, in return for helping to construct a gas processing facility.
According to the Anatolian agency’s sources this would be a truly huge marine and air force facility containing around 30,000 personnel. Only one third would be civilian workers.
Greek Cyprus already houses two large British sovereign bases dedicated to NATO operations. Thus talking into account the Turkish military base in the north, this small island suddenly starts to resemble an armed camp and a powder keg that might explode at any moment, as it has so frequently in the past.
I suspect the suggestion of such an enormous Israeli military presence is highly exaggerated, but to eyes in Turkey, a mere hundred Israeli troops stationed on the island would represent a massive provocation, given that Turkish and Greek Cypriots are already in dispute as to sovereignty over the projected drilling locations.
These events need to be interpreted in their historical context.
Cyprus has been divided between Turkish and Greek Cypriot camps since 1974, following years of bitter ethnic strife. A kind of Berlin Wall dividing line separates the two communities, manned by what has long been derided as the UN’s ‘holiday army.’
But there was deeper geopolitical background to that rupture.
The US and NATO actively sought and manipulated the division by staging a false flag Greek invasion of the island using members of the Greek Gladio secret army organization.
After a week-long pogrom mainly of Turkish Cypriots, and the near assassination of the island president, Archbishop Makarios, the Turks landed a large force in the north.
The political landscape has been frozen ever since, despite meandering efforts to find some diplomatic solution.
The EU compounded the split by allowing Greek Cyprus full membership – while conceding no recognition in any respect whatsoever of the Turkish Cypriot North.
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been in the deep freeze since Israeli commandos attacked a Turkish sponsored Gaza aid convoy in the summer of 2010, killing nine Turkish citizens.
Demands from the Ankara government that Israel should apologize and offer compensation have gone unheeded.
Turkey responded by breaking all military ties with Israel (dating back to the 1950s) and also reduced diplomatic relations to tick-over basis. Israeli air force jets can no longer fly over Turkey and even civilian planes are subject to restrictions.
Of late Turkey has infuriated Washington and NATO by blocking Israel’s presence at the NATO summit in Chicago. In general both countries continually prick and needle each other across the entire Middle East region.
Netanyahu is now emboldened by formation of a powerful majority government reaching across the political spectrum. Turkey sees that as a dangerous indication that Israel may well throw a wild card.
The favorite candidate is the issue of Cyprus and the contentious issue of off-shore drilling rights.
If all this were not enough, Washington is extremely keen to lever Erdogan and his soft Islamic Justice and Development (AK) party out of power. In the past the US toppled un-cooperative Turkish governments with ease, thanks to her control of the Turkish military and secret services.
All that changed when AK came to power in a landslide ten years ago. Erdogan has castrated the hawkish generals and admirals, and prosecuted the aged General Kenan Evren for seizing power at America’s behest in 1980, despite his very advanced years.
Erodgan exposed the Ergenekon derin devlet (deep state) organization, the successor to the former NATO-sponsored Turkish Gladio force called Counter-Guerrilla. This was clearly manipulated by the secular powers and foreign intelligence with the aim to topple the incumbent Islamists.
But what speaks loudest to ordinary Turks is the humming dynamo of the economy, 8% and more annual growth rates, the massive expansion of the business sector and Turkey’s increasing pride in herself as the revitalized and re-invigorated ‘New Ottoman Empire.’
To the disenfranchised strife-ridden gin-and-tonic secular elites, all this is heresy.
It is not yet clear if Netanyahu is bluffing with his meddling in Cypriot affairs, simply to poke fingers in Erdogan’s eyes. Unquestionably, the two men despise each other.
But a cool analysis suggests that the breach between Israel and Turkey is final, at least under present governance.
The next steps in Cyprus taken by both estranged powers will therefore demonstrate if the cold war in the Eastern Mediterranean really is about to turn hot.
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