Quick! Somebody buy some water cannon….
Sensational new leaks show how Brussels, Papandreou, Samaras and Stournaras snatched default from the jaws of restructuring
In a new blog post from Greek crisis veteran commentator Yannis Koutsomitis,
2010 documents show how, had reality rather than greed, pride and
geopolitics been applied in early IMF negotiations, Greece would be in a
far more advantageous economic and fiscal place than the debt-hole it
occupies today.
Koutsomitis has obtained access to an explosive memo -
-
that establishes how relatively easy it would have been at that stage
to organise debt restructuring, given the opinions of key IMF States:
But despite this, for some reason(s) the Greeks – led by George Papandreou – turned this down:
At
some point in this process (as I posted to the sound of universal
ridicule at the time) influences from Berlin via Paris to Washington
intervened to arm-lock the Greek contingent out of accepting debt
restructuring. It’s not hard to see why: German and French banks were
hugely exposed to Greek debt, and America was paranoid about Wall Street
banking firms and debt insurers being able to withstand the hit.
Clearly, that influence has continued….and helps explain some odd decisions by Greek Finance minister Yannis Stournaras of late.
Now that senior EU bods are confirmed to have been holding less than
secret meetings about staving off a Greek default yet again in May 2014,
it was interesting to note that Stournaras was not actually invited to
the meetings concerned, as such.The Stournaras approach thus far has
been as follows:
1. He doesn’t trust the IMF, who are (in case you hadn’t spotted it)
behind on their promised loan aid. This partly explains his recent
rejection of Christine Lagarde’s offer to break away from the Troika’s
clutches, and help her persuade the other two prongs to give Athens
massive debt relief. (Which would also reduce the depth of the hole
she’s in). It also further suggests warnings and promises being given by
Americans and Germans respectively.
2. Yannis doesn’t trust the non-ECB/EC lenders, because they keep on
upping the demands and introducing new ones: hence their early departure
from Athens last time, and unwillingness to return. As Ekathimerini
reports today, ‘It is worrisome to hear the lenders keep moving the
goalposts on some matters and sometimes bring up more issues. Some
outsiders think this is part of the negotiation process as they try to
exert more pressure on the government to honor its previous commitments
or/and delay some important decisions, i.e. debt relief, until after the
May elections.’
3. In that context of balls-sqeezing, Yannis staked his all on the
EC/Berlin promise of debt relief at Christmas… relief that could’ve been
trumpeted to the Greeks as evidence that all would be well….and enable
New Democracy to regain its long-lost lead in the polls. But once the
German election was in the bag, they reneged on the deal.
Looking back over this saga, the Greeks have been consistently lied
to (first by the Germans, then the Americans, then the EC, and now the
EC/Berlin axis again) while Washington has tried at every stage to
protect its banking and insurance interests from debt restructuring….and
the banking firms who tell the White House what to do have in turn kept
Greek negotiators on tilt by constantly changing the rules of the game –
and occasionally the game itself.
The leading EU powers want their financial institutions protected,
and the euro not to fail. The American political élite wants to protect
its institutions and push for Grexit as a means of massively increasing
its influence in the region. And the US institutions themselves want the
best deal they can get on the Dollar.
What Greece might need has never – not for a single minute – been a
serious consideration. In the game of geopolitical chess, Samaras and
Stournaras have been completely outclassed….and now hung out to dry.
Samaras has been made to look ridiculous, and his Finance minister a
hapless pawn.
But as always when it comes to Weltpolitik, the megalomaniacs
underestimate the importance of regional reaction by the citizens
involved. Between now and May, the Troika has one last golden
opportunity to do the decent thing in relation to Greek debt: to make it
realistic and repayable. My money says, firmly, that they will simply
keep the sparrow within reach of the cat, with one leg broken to avoid
any chance of escape. Sometimes you see, the past is an excellent guide
to the future.
Greed, global aspirations, pride and energy obsession among the
Troikanauts will push the Greeks further into a corner. That will
destroy the only allies the major powers have left in Greece. And at
some point thereafter, it will all come tumbling down.
But the Troika will not take the opportunity. Their sort never does.
_________
Greece Is (Officially) The Most Corrupt European Nation
Submitted by Tyler Durden: With the Greeks facing up to their third (or 4th or 5th, who's counting anymoe anyway) bailout, proclaiming growth is just around the corner, that the crisis is behind them, and that slavery will solve European youth unemployment;
we thought it both ironic and sad that, as Bloomberg's Niraj Shah
notes, the European Commission today publishes its first anti-corruption
report and finds Greece has the most corrupt public sector, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
As a gentle reminder, Greece’s shadow economy was equivalent to 24 percent of GDP in 2012, the Institute of Economic Affairs estimates.
But Afghanistan and Somalia top the world's corruption index...
(click image for large legible version)
The Corruption Perceptions Index 2013 serves as a reminder that the abuse of power, secret dealings and bribery continue to ravage societies around the world. The Index scores 177 countries and territories on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). No country has a perfect score, and two-thirds of countries score below 50. This indicates a serious, worldwide corruption problem.
The Corruption Perceptions Index 2013 serves as a reminder that the abuse of power, secret dealings and bribery continue to ravage societies around the world. The Index scores 177 countries and territories on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). No country has a perfect score, and two-thirds of countries score below 50. This indicates a serious, worldwide corruption problem.
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