UK WHEAT SCREW-UP OFFICIAL: BRITAIN FACES WHEAT PRODUCTION DISASTER, DEFRA BEHIND THE MUSIC

Owen Paterson issues press release saying ‘impact only now being seen’

Paterson…reaffirms dangers of sensorally challenged Ministers

The Slog: Not that it matters overmuch, but some time back I posted a brief piece to the effect that the lousy weather must be having an effect on the European food chain…and I wondered why nobody in authority hahahaha, sorry about that, was discussing what we should do about it. As I’ve said before, I am no climate/weather expert, but I have this astonishing ability to feel cold, observe snow falling in May, notice rain and clouds – even read a thermometer. It’s a gift, and I just thank God for it, she’s a very clever girl.

In the Guardian this morning – for some reason under ‘environment’ – there is a piece saying, you’ll never guess, that Britain is now going to have to import tons of flour/wheat to make up the shortfall. The Guardianista’s dislike of any business producer group is so ingrained under Rusbridger the Mad March Trot, the headline couldn’t resist saying, ‘Farmers fail to feed UK after extreme weather hits wheat crop’. Silly Farmer Giles not having control over the weather and all, but I rather think fingers should be pointing elsewhere re this one.

For a start, I’m afraid they must point at Owen Paterson. This is a shame, because Defra wasn’t Patercake’s idea, and anyway he strikes me as a bloke with blind spots but the best of intentions (far more than you can say for the rest of the Cabinet). His real brief should be to take a view on longer term environmental evidence and data, not be the Kommissar for the Kollektives of Kamerlot Produktion. But thanks to some harebrained consultant or Sir Humphrey from the past looking to empire-build, the f in Defra does stand for food. So: frightfully sorry Owen old top, but you’re in the frame for this one.

My questions are threefold:

1. Once February had passed – and the forecast until at least April was utterly dire – did anyone at Defra think about trying to buy Wheat futures ahead at a better price than now? And a subsidiary here: did Defra alert the Treasury to the potential impact on deficit balancing strategy?

2. Over at the Treasury (where I hear black armbands are de rigueur since Hester got the chop) have the owners of four wrong economic forecasts in a row had the nous to do this anyway?

3. Do we think that this disaster in the making might start to persuade Camerlot to take the land laid to food issue more seriously, rather than spouting the usual bollocks about there being nothing they can do?

There’s a clue in the Guardian column – in the shape of an arse-covering release from Defra (my emphasis):

‘The full impact of the hard winter is only now being seen, according to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Its latest analysis says the total income from farming decreased by £737m in 2012 to £4.7bn, with farmers facing both crop losses and higher costs to feed their animals.’

So I rather suspect the answers are ‘no’, ‘no’ and thrice ‘no’. But then, a bigotry based on experience is coming into play here, in that I have reached the conclusion – too slowly, I suspect – that almost everyone in a senior position throughout Whitehall and Westminster is a fornicating onanist.

I hope, if time allows in the 36 hours remaining, to make the West-to-White deficiences the subject of the Saturday Essay this week. In the meantime, what does anyone know about this issue? Usual rules apply please: I’d like answers from folks who know something, not everything….to jawslog@gmail.com.

I have a German friend who says to me “The British are surprised by every eventuality”. Sadly, he’s right.

UK WHEAT SCREW-UP: Update

The Slog’s Defra post of earlier today produced a response of unprecedented quality.

The earlier Slogpost about our need to import megatons of wheat has produced a massive email inbox, and I thank all those who wrote in with, on the whole, exceptionally well-informed views. Also for all those who threaded so constructively at the site. Some of the emailed stuff contains sound questions and solid data I think should be circulated more widely.

This from Frances Channon: “Where are these tons of wheat coming from and could it be GM frankenwheat?  Caveat emptor!  Defra and the weather forecasters are merely players.  Thinking back to Michael Fish and the hurricane, you can’t trust forecasts…..[and] beware the Del Monte pink pineapples – GM approved for human consumption.”

And from David Bodsworth: “Your comment about the short fall in food wheat is only one part. Here in Wales the price of supplement feed for the grazing cattle and sheep has gone up by 10 to 20 % this year, but the price for slaughter is at last years price  for cattle or dropping for sheep. The general view in mid Wales is that farms are going to reduce their stock levels to reduce the out going costs and try to rely on the fields  of grass for summer grazing and winter silage. One of our local feed mills is laying off 2 staff from a total of 8 so the knock on effect in this small local community is only just starting to be felt.

What are the ministry doing ? this mornings post is 2 forms to be filled in about the land I own and the animals / crops on it. This was all in the last lot done just before Christmas. The next thing from the ministry of Environment is a whole new mass of paper work to  apply for exemptions to burn tree trimmings spread ditch cleaning soils and to apply manure to fields. Each need accurate field sizes and estimates of materials used and is only valid for a specific time.”

Mark Rose writes to observe: “If you want to get involved in this then you step into the Global Cooling vs Global Warming debate. Basically Global Warming has taken over the organs of western governments which is why they and the Met are constantly surprised at what actually happens.
The Earth has switched into a Global Cooling mode which will have major impacts on food production and population. Look at Piers Corbyn on the Global Cooling debate. He understands the effects on Earth from the sun and the sun is going into cool mode, see sunspot cycles. For impact on food production look up presentations given by David Archibald in Australia.”

IW points out: “Wheat futures – in January 2013 they were $840, today $680….hedging in January/February would have been a very bad move.”

And last but definitely not least, Edward Spalton has published at length on the degree to which the CAP more or less cuts off Owen Paterson’s balls anyway. I should’ve taken more account of this: I don’t concur with all of Edward’s historical thesis, but at worst it is a fascinating insight into how Big is almost always Bad.

Great response, and an exemplar of what the Web should really be about.

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