By John Ward: The disaster at Fukushima continues to rumble on, but unfortunately
95% of the world can’t hear the sound of toxic materials entering the
Pacific Ocean….and 50% of the 5% are fully employed lying about it,
while the other 50% are dying from it. So for the moment, it’s on the
back burner having its calamity flavour intensified, before being
freeze-dried and placed in the Too Difficult to Solve drawer.
But trust me, it could be a lot worse. Do not dismiss this as either humour or smugness: I’m serious.
Imagine a world in which, in order to fire millions of people and
inflate 15,000 egos, all the badly-built Russian and GE-designed
Fukushimas on Earth had been joined together to create an enormous
global chain of infinite energy – such that all the reactors in China
getting Brazil syndrome would communicate it within days (or even hours)
to all those Japanese reactors engaged in accelerating meltdown. Oh my
goodness me, you think. How silly would that be?
Energy is one of the few dimensions of contemporary life not joined
up like some form of pandemic waiting to happen. But globalist
mercantile capitalism, European fiscality, the stock markets, currency
trading and investment banking are joined up exactly like that.
Every day now, the main problem facing those at the top (hereinafter
referred to as the Headless) is the epidemiology risk of passing
infection from one debtor/recession/bank scandal/sovereign borrowing
binge/plummeting currency region to another. Even the Headless
themselves call this contagion. It is madness..or as last night’s blog here suggested, Bedlam.
The ‘solutions’ suggested are just as mad, because it’s only the mad
people who come up with them. Neoliberal dogma says cut taxes and fire
bureaucrats, but in ClubMed their solution involves raising taxes and
moving bureaucrats around. The idea is that this accelerates the speed
at which the workforce becomes destitute, and thus lowers wage costs.
Once this process is complete, foreign investment pours in and jobs are
created. Throughout ClubMed, this is not happening. The answer from the
Headless? More of it.
This has been regularly dubbed in recent years financial repression,
and for once this isn’t fluffy 1968 student Marxist claptrap: it is
precisely what the Headless want. But without repression, censorship,
dictation, banning protests and then stealing the populace’s money
directly, the whole system must fail….as it will in the end whether the
Hobgoblins get up to more devilment or not.
So to sum up thus far, globalist neoliberalism is an infectious
disease transmitted by any and every means….a sort of Fascist Avian
Kimura Ecoli virus (FAKE).
But this is the ‘brand’ of product, we are told, to which there is no
alternative. Only ze gut Frau Doktor Angele Mengele knows what to do.
You know that really, so stop complaining and let me stick this
Caterpillar-tread digger-grab into your bank account. Get real, get
FAKE.
To catch FAKE you first of all need to be exposed to it. You will
have noticed that exposure too is a very common banking term applied to
everything from debt via derivatives to moral hazard. As the Ukraine
crisis unfolds, for example, exposure to FAKE may well prove to be the
deciding factor. This little outbreak was covered by Reuters two days
ago:
France’s second-biggest bank had
exposure of 22.4 billion euros to Russia at the end of June, according
to the European Banking Authority’s (EBA) data. That equated to 15.7
billion euros in risk-weighted assets.
SocGen Russia, which includes
Rosbank and other insurance and financial operations, made operating
income of 239 million euros last year, almost double 2012 but with a 41%
in losses from bad debts. The bank said it had 13.5 billion euros of
outstanding loans in Russia, and deposits of 8.5 billion in the country
at the end of 2013.
Now I could be fined (see above under ‘censorship’) for writing this
about a French bank while I’m resident here in France, but the case
wouldn’t stand up, because Reuters used SocGen’s own figures, and I’m
merely repeating them. The sole point I’m making here is that the bank
is in danger of catching the Russian strain of FAKE, which is a
particularly virulent form of the virus from which RBS also suffers,
albeit so far in latent form.
But probably the fastest way to catch FAKE is by investing in an
overheated stock market. Boston-based James Montier, one of America’s
most respected ‘value trader stock investors, said the following things
to Zero Hedge in an interview earlier this week:
“When we look at the world today, what we see is a hideous
opportunity set. And that’s a reflection of the central bank policies
around the world. They drive the returns on all assets down to zero,
pushing everybody out on the risk curve….[in Europe] we have increasing
concerns about the prospect of deflation in the Eurozone….That’s a big
issue for European equities…Utilities, oil & gas, some telecom, some
industrials. Names we like in that field are Total, BP, Royal Dutch,
Telefonica and the like. The problem with all those sectors is that they
tend to be debt heavy, which is why the prospect of deflation is such a
big issue….The time to be buying broad European equities was two years
ago.”
So you see, the Central banks infect the institutional investors, who
then get infected by everyone in the Ezone having the same dumb
currency, and as that currency has saddled ClubMed with debt, money is
running away from the EU – and that means pretty soon China will catch
FAKE. This next is what Montier concludes – as a strictly value-based
trader with immense experience:
“The exit from [Fed QE] is going to be extraordinarily difficult to
handle….emerging markets are the canary in the coalmine, the first
signal….I don’t see much evidence of people being overly cautious, but a
lot more evidence of people getting exuberant….Several valuation measures suggest that the S&P is overvalued by 50 to 70%. Every piece of valuation I do says this market is too expensive.”
In short, it’s completely FAKED. Or another vowel after the F, depending on your level of pessimism.
Were there to be a correction of that magnitude in the Stock markets
(and one day, there must be) it would be hard to imagine Janet Yellen
doing nothing. The problem is, what could she do? As Sober Look
writes today, “The US monetary base is now near $4 trillion, with some
$2.5 trillion of it sitting on banks’ balance sheets in the form of
excess reserves – a situation with no precedent. Removing it would
require the Fed to sell its securities holdings – something the central
bank is not planning to do.”
This is the summation:
Linking all potentially toxic things in series vastly increases the
transmission of contagion. Contagion comes from contact, and contact
comes from globalised commerce. Globalised commerce was the idea of an
anti-empirically clueless theorist called Ted Levitt. It is entirely
apt, therefore, that his theory has produced a denial of systemic flaws
that future historians may well dub Levittation: the pretence that all
Laws of Gravity have been superceded by the wacky alchemy of Milton
Friedman.
No comments:
Post a Comment