The Euroskeptics got a lot of press in the run up to these elections and the final result was pretty much in line with expectations, with a couple of exceptions. The pro-EU left lost a lot more ground in Sweden than expected but the Dutch People’s Party were rejected thoroughly in the Netherlands.
Otherwise the polls were mostly in line with the results. And while the early spin tried to put a brave face on results in the U.K. and France Marine Le Pen outpolling sitting president Emmanuel Macron just two years after he beat her in the presidential election is notable.
The results in the U.K. were a microcosm of the trends we’re seeing across Europe.
The major parties, both campaigning from the center, lost the confidence of the people on both sides of the divisive Brexit argument.
Those that want Brexit in no uncertain terms bolted to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party while those fed up with Labour’s indecision on not only Brexit but a host of other issues bolted for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
And a lot of those seats that would have went to the Social Democrats via Labour in the European Parliament now belong to Guy Verhofstadt and ALDE.
But the U.K. isn’t alone in this splitting along ideological lines. Germany has seen the collapse of the Social Democrats give spark to the Greens there as well. The Greens outpolled Angela Merkel’s Grand Coalition partners by more than five points, coming in 2nd behind the CDU/CSU with 20.5%.
And this is the takeaway. Governing from the center by trying to mask what the EU actually is versus what it was sold as isn’t working. Merkel had to ‘un-retire’ as leader of the CDU to stop the bleeding, thinking she’d weathered the worst of the storm posed by Euroskeptics like Alternative for Germany, who regressed from their 2017 election result with 11%.
The strong performance in countries that are pro-EU by parties that want more integration of Europe, as represented by the gains of ALDE and the Green alliances, was offset by a harder, more confrontational brand of Euroskepticism as represented by Brexit, Hungary’s Fidesz and Italy’s Lega.
Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Nigel Farage’s Brexit are now the best represented parties in the European Parliament. Both are on a collision course with EU leadership intent on squashing both of them.
The full results weren’t even reported officially, and European President Donald Tusk was out in the media calling “Brexit the vaccine for Euroskepticism.” This is him doubling down on the fear tactics of what will happen to anyone who dares think about trying to leave the EU.
The problem for Tusk, of course, is that the political establishment in the U.K. is fraying badly and will not be able to hold onto power through the end of the year.
With this disastrous result one would expect the Tories to dissolve government out of shame, similar to what Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (not a guy with an ounce of shame, mind you) did after losing to New Democracy.
But that won’t happen. And it is obvious why. Brussels and Westminster are still scheming to scuttle Brexit and blunt the rise of Farage from riding a sovereigntist wave into 10 Downing Street later in the year.
Because Labour was so thoroughly rebuked after leader Jeremy Corbyn was suckered into backing a second referendum he doesn’t dare call for a No-Confidence Vote against the government as there’s little chance of him winning a General Election with anything other than an unworkable coalition.
There will be, however, a challenge to his leadership in the near future as the political class in London have been itching to get rid of Corbyn and put one of Tony Blair’s hand-picked globalists back in charge.
A drubbing like Labour just took should be all the impetus they need to pull the plug.
For now, we’ll have to sit through a ridiculous glamour party as the Tories try to figure out who wants to captain its Titanic with an iceberg dead ahead set for impact on Halloween.
But since these elections didn’t end up with an upside surprise for the Euroskeptic parties overall, the usual suspects in Brussels will wrongly take that as a vote of confidence to thwart any reforms to their European project.
Tusk’s statement was aimed directly at his own Polish government as well as Salvini in Italy and Viktor Orban in Hungary. The EU’s counterattack already began for Italy with the EU threatening to fine Italy $4 billion it doesn’t have for violating budget rules. This came one day after Salvini was handed a loaded gun by voters to oppose EU austerity.
Germany voted for Merkel et.al. to stay the course if not accelerate the program and Italy voted otherwise.
This is a perfect example of why, ultimately, the EU is an unworkable project that should never have been allowed to get to this stage of political integration. Had it simply stayed a free-trade zone like what is on offer in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) it would have been successful.
But that was never the agenda. The agenda was always to create a transnational superstate with no regard for the will of the people it governed. And for years these people were lied to about what the EU was and what its goals were.
And now that they see it some have embraced it and others have rejected it.
That’s why the center can no longer hold and why in the very near future mere anarchy will be loosed upon it because of the hubris of those who wouldn’t take no for an answer.
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