27 Oct 2025

Milei's Mandate Marches On In Decisive Midterms Win For His Party

La Libertad Avanza on track to Win 41% of votes in key Argentina ballot test...

By Tyler Durden: Update(2050ET): Despite plenty of earlier predictions to the contrary, Argentina President Javier Milei's party is on track to finish first in Argentina’s midterms with over 90% of votes counted, in a big comeback. According to a breaking news wire:

  • MILEI'S PARTY HAS 41.5% IN BUENOS AIRES TO PERONISM'S 40.8%

According to the English-langauge Buenos Aires Times at 9:30pm local time, "Official results point to a decisive win for President Javier Milei and La Libertad Avanza. The only force to be running in every province, the ruling party's alliance with ex-president Mauricio Macri's PRO party has won it more than 40 percent of the national vote for lower house deputies."

The Wall Street Journal reviews of the significance:

That means it should secure at least one-third of the seats in both chambers—the critical threshold that allows Milei to preserve his veto power and defend his sweeping decrees. The result, stronger than most polls had predicted, gives Milei fresh political momentum after months of unrest over deep spending cuts and a grinding recession last year.

It also shores up his standing with Washington and the International Monetary Fund, which have tied future financial support to the survival of his austerity experiment. Market analysts expect Argentine bonds and the peso to rally when trading opens Monday, reflecting relief that Milei still has political traction. The U.S. announced a $20 billion currency swap this month to prop up Argentina’s currency and promised to raise another $20 billion from private banks and sovereign-wealth funds.

Recall the crucial words of Trump from earlier this month, "If he wins, we’re staying with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’re gone." He just survived and thrived in this major test of his austerity agenda, despite a public turnout which was a low in decades.

* * *

Some 36 million eligible Argentines are headed to the polls Sunday for legislative elections which are key to determining the fate of President Javier Milei’s sweeping reform agenda, and could unsettle financial markets if his support collapses, despite record US assistance in the form of the ultra-controversial big beautiful bailout from the Trump administration, which could also hang in the balance.

The midterm vote is being closely watched internationally, as it marks the first nationwide referendum on the self-styled anarcho-capitalist's austerity measures and economic deregulation efforts since he assumed office two years ago. At the start of this past week, Argentina assets soared on the heels of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the South American country "a systemically important US ally in Latin America," adding that the US Treasury "stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table."

Via Associated Press

But the potential $40 billion bailout package for Argentina is also on the line (Bessent indicated the extra $20 billion on top of the initial $20bn would come from "the private sector" - which seems somewhat wishful given the scenario of private investors wanting to risk such sums in volatile Argentina). The aid could be withdrawn by Trump if his populist ally Milei tanks. President Trump even spelled out, "If he doesn’t win, we’re not going to waste our time, because his opponents’ philosophy has no chance of making Argentina great again."

On Sunday, voters are choosing half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate. It was the campaign period leading up to the vote which saw a sharp decline in the peso, prompting Milei to the request emergency financial support from Washington. Should the Sunday vote go against Milei - and there are a number of signs suggesting this will be the case - then Trump "will not be generous" - as he's forewarned in prior comments.

President Milei's La Libertad Avanza party, which remains a newcomer in Argentine politics, currently holds just 37 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and six in the Senate, giving it less than 15% of the total seats in Congress. The party desperately needs to expand its representation to at least one-third of Congress, a goal that would strengthen its ability to block opposition efforts to derail Milei's ambitious agenda.

If Milei's party performs weak, this could serve to quickly resolve domestic controversy for Trump at home:

On October 19, a reporter asked Trump why he decided to aid Argentina despite concerns among US soya producers. “Argentina is fighting for its life,” Trump answered. “Young lady, you don’t know anything about it. … They have no money. They have no anything.”

US aid to Argentina didn’t directly harm US soya producers – they have been hurt by a separate Trump policy, his trade war with China. But the timing of the aid and the soya bean export troubles pose a problem of optics for the White House.

But as for "optics" - a loss in these midterms will mark a defeat of US credibility in the region, given the aforementioned multibillion-dollar lifeline from the White House.

With a few hours until polls close, reports of low voter turnout, a bad sign for the Argentine Trump ally...

Milei himself faces reelection in 2027, and the national direction after Sunday will signal whether Milei’s "chainsaw" austerity program will have any staying power. Politico notes, "LLA is expected to gain seats — though not enough to secure a majority against the left-wing Peronist coalition — but if the president’s coalition underperforms, it could lead to a broad selloff of Argentinian assets."

The vote is happening between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. (1100–2100 GMT), and some preliminary results are expected to emerge roughly three hours after polls close.

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