Submitted by Tyler Durden: It is no secret that as the Fed's centrally-planned New Normal has
unfolded, one after another central-planner and virtually all
economists, have been caught wrong-footed with their constant
predictions of an "imminent" economic surge, any minute now, and always
just around the corner. And yet, nearly six years after Lehman, five
years after the end of the last "recession" (even as the depression for
most rages on), America is about to have its worst quarter in decades
(excluding the great financial crisis), with a -2% collapse in GDP,
which has been blamed on... the weather.
That's right: economists are the only people who will look anyone in
the eye, and suggest that it was harsh weather that smashed global
trade, pounded retail sales (in the process freezing the internet
because people it was so cold nobody shopped online), and even with
soaring utility usage and the Obamacare induced capital misallocation
still led to world's largest economy to a 5% plunge from initial
estimates for 3% growth in Q1. In other words, a delta of hundreds of
billion in "growth lost or uncreated" due to, well, snow in the winter.Sadly for the same economists, now that Q2 is not shaping up to be much better than Q1, other, mostly climatic, excuses have arisen: such as El Nino, the California drought, and even suggestions that, gasp, as a result of the Fed's endless meddling in the economy, the terminal growth rate of the world has been permanently lowered to 2% or lower.
What is sadder for economists, even formerly respectable ones, is that overnight it was none other than Tyler Cowen who, writing in the New York Times, came up with yet another theory to explain the "continuing slowness of economic growth in high-income economies." In his own words: "An additional explanation of slow growth is now receiving attention, however. It is the persistence and expectation of peace."
That's right - blame it on the lack of war!