The Jews' Somaliland Decision Is Already Starting To Backfire

KernowDamo: Somaliland recognition wasn’t diplomacy. It was preparation. Israel expects to need leverage later — abut now it’s stuck with the damage.

Right, so Israel has recognised Somaliland as a state in and of itself, the first nation on the planet to formally do so. The decision is done, it’s public, and it’s already costed in. Israel has chosen to step into a sovereignty dispute most states have avoided for three decades and has decided it can live with the fallout. Well I wonder why that is?

Because Somaliland didn’t suddenly become viable. Its status didn’t change. The law didn’t change. What changed is Israel’s tolerance for contradiction. The same state that insists recognition must follow negotiations, uses that line to block Palestine, and treats unilateral recognition as destabilising has just done it anyway, where it suits.

And when a state already talking about removing Gaza’s population, watching Red Sea routes become unreliable, and expecting pressure to increase starts building leverage in weak, desperate places, you don’t call it outreach. You call it preparation for something. This isn’t a story about Somaliland at all not really. It’s about what Israel is now willing to break — and what it no longer plans to fix. What are they up to? 

Right, so Israeli-Somaliland recognition. What’s the craic here then Damo? Well, the important thing is not the announcement itself but the fact that it happened at all. This is not a courtesy gesture, not a diplomatic nicety, and not a neutral acknowledgement of reality. It is a state deliberately stepping into a sovereignty dispute of some 30 odd years, fully aware of what that means, and deciding it doesn’t care, that the cost is acceptable. That decision alone tells you this move is not about principle. It is about preparation. But for what?

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991. It has governed itself since, held elections, maintained internal security, and built functioning institutions. None of that is new. None of it suddenly improved in 2025. The reason Somaliland remained unrecognised for decades was not ignorance or indecision. It was caution. African states in particular understand that recognising unilateral secession is not an abstract moral act.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state marks a significant shift in global diplomacy, making it the first nation to formally acknowledge its sovereignty. This decision thrusts Somaliland's independence and its implications for international relations into the spotlight, particularly concerning red sea geopolitics and the broader horn of africa geopolitics. The move prompts questions about Israel's foreign policy objectives and the evolving landscape of unrecognized states.