Submitted by Tyler Durden: The great trade, capital flow and debt imbalances that were built up over the preceding two decades must reverse themselves. Michael
Pettis notes, however, that these imbalances can continue for many
years, but at some point they become unsustainable and the world must
adjust by reversing those imbalances. One way or the other, in other
words, the world will rebalance. But there are worse ways and better
ways it can do so. Pettis adds that, any policy that does not
clearly result in a reversal of the deep debt, trade and capital
imbalances of the past decade is a policy that cannot be sustained. It
is likely to be political considerations that determine how quickly the
rebalancing processes take place and whether they do so in ways that
set the stages for future growth or future stagnation. Pettis' guess is
that we have ended the first stage of the global crisis, and most of the
deepest problems have been identified. In 2013 we will begin to see how
policymakers respond and what the future outlook is likely to be. The following 10 themes are what he will be watching this year in order to figure out where we are likely to end up.
Authored by Michael Pettis: What I'll Be Watching In 2013,
Authored by Michael Pettis: What I'll Be Watching In 2013,
I’ll be watching a number of
things in 2013 in order to get a better sense of what the future will
bring. On January 22 Princeton University Press will be publishing my book, The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead,
and in the last chapter of the book I argue that the great trade,
capital flow and debt imbalances that were built up over the preceding
two decades must reverse themselves. Imbalances can continue for many
years, I argue, but at some point they become unsustainable and the
world must adjust by reversing those imbalances.
