“We’ve had to recalibrate our business”
By Wolf Richter: Refinancing mortgages is a phenomenally profitable and nearly
risk-free business for banks, and one of the few growth sectors that
were actually spawned by the Fed’s herculean efforts to force down
long-term interest rates through waves of quantitative easing. Banks
went on a hiring binge to shuffle all this paper around and extract fees
along the way before they’d dump most of these mortgages into the lap
of government-owned and bailed-out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And then
they’d run.Refis accounted for up to 70% of all mortgage lending in the first half of this year. But they’ve been plunging since early May, consistently, unrelentingly, week after week. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Refinance Index, after being down another 4.6% for the week ending August 16, reported yesterday, has swooned 62.1% from its recent peak in early May.
Mortgage rates have jumped over a full percentage point from 3.59% in early May to 4.68%, as of the week ending August 16, according to the MBA. By now, given how much Treasuries have jumped since August 16, mortgage rates have risen even further. Thus, much of the incentive to refinance a home has evaporated, especially when fees and points are taken into account.




