Simplicius: Iran has refused to make any concessions to the US because it knows the treacherous Trump administration has no principles whatsoever when it comes to honoring deals. All the while, the US has resorted to outright begging and making every possible concession to avert the humiliation of accepting a Hormuz with tolls:
WSJ writes:
The U.S. and Oman are looking for ways to break Iran’s insistence on charging tolls for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Their chief lever in indirect talks was a promise to unfreeze some of the $100 billion in Iranian funds held overseas.
The U.S. diplomats offered a trade-off to Iran, the people said: Relinquish its claim to control the strait and renounce toll payments in exchange for billions of dollars of unfrozen funds.
Europe, on the other hand, is now convinced that bowing to Iranian regional hegemony is the only remaining rational choice as the rest of the world simply lacks cards to play in prying Hormuz away from its rightful proprietors:
As the most striking example of this came Vice President JD Vance’s eye-opening admission two days ago that Trump merely used the MOU as a brief pause to give the world some time to refill its oil stocks and stave off economic collapse, before—it is strongly implied—continuing the unprovoked aggression against Iran as needed.
Listen carefully:
The frankness is shocking, to say the least:
“So, I think what the president has told us to do is use this MOU to sort of refill the world’s oil economy. To refill some stocks, and then to see where the hand is.”
What most immediately becomes clear is that our previous reporting here was accurate in regard to the true extent of economic danger the US and the world was facing, and how secretly aware Trump was of it all despite his theatrical bravado toward Iran. It’s clear that Trump cried uncle because Iran won this round of Chicken, but as Vance here implies, the threat is not over as Trump believes he can simply wait out an economic stabilization period and then give it another go.
Regarding this, there have been reports that all kinds of “historic-level” mass airlifts from the US toward the Middle East have been ongoing this past week, with many believing they represent US preparations for a ground invasion of some kind. The main trigger for this was the sudden flare-up of military activity in the Baghdad Green Zone which allegedly turned out to be a large-scale American-led anti-Iranian coup, wherein Iraqi forces hunted down pro-Iranian factions and “traitors” to—as some believe—set the stage for something bigger:
There can be only one explanation for this: US and Israel are preparing a ground invasion into Iran. Iraq can be the only staging ground. Iran-Iraq war 2.0 https://t.co/bG6QVPC0lV
— Alex (Sasha) Krainer (@NakedHedgie) July 1, 2026
Of course, the US has no real ability to stage any kind of successful ground invasion of Iran—the thought is simply laughable. But given what we know of Trump’s recent mental degradation, it’s anybody’s guess as to how far he may take his delusions of grandeur. He may still possess twisted fantasies of taking Kharg island, at the minimum, or something similar.
For instance, Pete Hegseth just ousted “rising star” General Christopher Donahue, Commanding General of US Army Europe and Africa, in what some people considered part of the ongoing purge of top general staff for the sake of total party fealty.
For the moment, Trump claims he’s given Iran a brief “respite” for the funeral of Ali Khamenei. Iran on the other hand continues to shutter Hormuz, with reports claiming that Iranian speedboats even traversed to the south of the strait to blockade the Omani territorial waters corridor the US was furtively using to sneak some vessels out:
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC has completely shut down the US-backed Omani corridor in the Strait of Hormuz with its speedboat fleet, with not a single vessel using the corridor for more than half a day, per marine traffic data.
This follows Iran’s IRGC issuing radio warnings to all ships this morning and deploying special forces patrol boats to enforce Iran’s Hormuz control, with more than 10+ vessels diverting to Iran’s approved route.
Further:
BREAKING: Ships are abandoning the U.S.-backed Omani corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and diverting to Iran-designated routes after the IRGC deployed patrol boats and began enforcing Tehran's transit orders, per Ship tracking data.
— The Hormuz Report (@HormuzReport) July 4, 2026
The IRGC reportedly ordered vessels over VHF… pic.twitter.com/gKJTxTVG0w
Other
Other reports appear to corroborate that few commercial vessels have attempted to pass the strait:
A review of commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, visible via http://MarineTraffic.com over the past 24 hours, shows only one merchant vessel completed its transit using the U.S.-supported traffic separation scheme through Omani waters (south). The overwhelming majority of visible traffic instead utilized the Iranian (northern) traffic separation scheme.
Notably, two groups of vessels initially attempted to use the southern route. One group reversed course before completing the transit, while a second group abandoned the Omani corridor and crossed into the Iranian traffic separation scheme.
It’s clear that the US is now biding its time to resupply its stations in the Mideast before potentially embarking—at the least—on more strikes. In light of this, there are some unverified reports from “anonymous sources in Iran” that Iran is even considering preemptive attacks on Israel for such a contingency, because Iranian leaders are tired of playing the militarily passive-reactive role.
U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has requested a meeting at the White House, with discussions potentially taking place as early as next week.
Now both Trump and Netanyahu find themselves in quite a mire with elections approaching—October for Netanyahu and the Likud, and November for US midterms. Multiple reports claim that Trump is putting on a tough facade in the face of his crushing loss to Iran, but internally things are polar opposite:
From the above:
Sources have described to The Telegraph an embattled atmosphere inside a White House consumed by crises, and the president’s unhappiness as he searches for scapegoats.
“He is in such a foul mood. He is so annoyed at White House staff because everything is going wrong,” a source close to the administration told The Telegraph. “The poll numbers are bad, and he thinks that everyone is doing nothing to fix it.”
Meanwhile, Axios claims that Trump’s inner circle has grown increasingly disillusioned with Bibi:
Between the lines: People in Trump’s orbit have grown increasingly skeptical and disillusioned with Netanyahu in the months since their February meeting.
“Many of Trump’s closest advisers think that Bibi was wrong about everything,” a U.S. official said.
Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon in a phone call last month, calling the prime minister “crazy” and accusing him of ingratitude.
The tensions have deepened a broader Republican schism over Israel and the war, with MAGA influencers like Tucker Carlson accusing Trump of being beholden to Netanyahu.
Despite this, the pair of star-crossed lovers appear fated to be consigned to the same cauldron of their own making when it comes to Iran. They are now inextricably trapped in a mire they don’t know how to get out of, which is bringing both their nations to ruination.
The US and Iran, too, are at a crossroads, today each celebrating a momentous occasion in time. For the US, it is the 250th anniversary of the country’s founding under the Declaration of Independence, which ironically has now come back full circle to the US being captured under the total vassalage of a foreign power—a state of affairs that would have the Founding Fathers turning in their graves.
For Iran, it is another fork in the road, a pattern break in the mosaic of its storied history as the nation rises up in unity to bid farewell to its spiritual father, a man who seemed divinely destined to preside over the defeat of his people’s tormentors.
Hundreds of thousands of people have poured into Tehran, with millions expected to attend a week of funeral ceremonies for late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 4, 2026
— in pictures https://t.co/y3oVHStpGf pic.twitter.com/XfBn3M1HuO
Two nations with their fates entwined. Two occasions of endings and beginnings, one marking death, but heralding monumental rebirth; and one celebrating birth, under the shadow of ruin.
Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf was seen effusively weeping at the Supreme Leader’s funeral:
Showcasing his class, and the humility and grace that the United States has managed to foster in its 250 years of history, Trump bragged that he could have bombed the entire funeral to wipe everyone out, then accused the Iranians of faking their tears:
Two nations, two spiritual destinies.
Happy Fourth of July.
No comments:
Post a Comment